IndexEconomic growth continuesInvesting in the current cyclePerformance by property typeAs we enter the next phases of the current economic cycle, one of the main topics of discussion among real estate operators is how much longer this will continue the trend of slow and constant growth. At the Mortgage Bankers Association's 2018 CREF Market Intelligence Symposium in New York City, hosted by New York University, Schack Institute of Real Estate, key industry participants gathered to discuss the state of the real estate market and where it's likely to go, how as well as key factors impacting commercial real estate and the U.S. economy. Say no to plagiarism. Get a tailor-made essay on "Why Violent Video Games Shouldn't Be Banned"? Get an Original Essay Economic Growth Continues MBA Michael Fratantoni, chief economist, senior vice president of research and technology, and Jamie Woodwell, vice president of commercial/multifamily research, kicked off the symposium with an economic overview, noting that the growth resumed in the second quarter and will likely continue through the remainder of the year and into 2019. Current fundamentals are stable, with continued job creation, a low unemployment rate of 4.0%, and rising inflation measures . The Federal Reserve has responded with two rate hikes this year, with the possibility of two more before the end of 2018. Fratantoni noted that three more rate hikes are possible in 2019, but the Federal Reserve's actions will depend on the performance of the economy in the coming years. year. There are some reasons for concern over the next few years, however, with the latest tax bill adding more than $1 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years and the unknown impact of trade tariffs on the US economy. These issues, combined with the flattening yield curve, are creating concerns about growth potential starting in 2020. While the Federal Reserve has acknowledged these risks, it has seen no need to change its strategy as the economy continues its its slow and constant growth. On the bright side, strong demographics support demand for both single-family and multifamily properties. Fratantoni noted that after several years of post-recession Millennials delaying starting families, they are now moving into apartments and buying homes. Millennials are reaching their peak years of real estate demand, with many reaching the prime age of 31-32 for their first purchase, suggesting a growing need for single-family and multifamily properties. Investing in the Current Cycle After the economic overview, Woodwell discussed how investor expectations have changed as we enter the final stages of the cycle. He noted that recent PREA surveys show that while investors expect good, solid income returns, they are less optimistic about achieving the double-digit appreciation returns they have experienced in recent years due to slowing rate compression. capitalization and growth of NOI. Woodwell noted, however, that steady income growth can continue to make a property a good, solid investment, even without increases in property value. These changing investor expectations are evident in recent sales transaction data from Real Capital Analytics, which showed a decline in sales volume last year, suggesting that owners with cash-flowing properties are holding off on selling while buyers they are more cautious if not,.